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Hugo 2021 Prediction List
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-02-03 7:54 PM (#22897)
Subject: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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For the past few years I've created a Hugo prediction list using a regression analysis that weighs a given book's performance in precursor book awards, the author's past award and nomination history, and several other factors. I have about 150 novels and 60 novellas in my prediction database so far this awards season. Thought I'd share the current top 16 of both lists. The Nebula finalists will be the last big predictor before the Hugo finalists are announced. This is not a list of books I think are deserving of the award, just a formula-based prediction based on a number of indicators.

NOVELS:
1) Network Effect by Martha Wells
2) Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal
3) The City We Became by N.K. Jemisin
4) Black Sun by Rebecca Roanhorse
5) Piranesi by Susanna Clarke
6) Harrow the Ninth by Tamsyn Muir

7) Once and Future Witches by Alix E. Harrow
8) Last Emperox by John Scalzi
9) The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue by V.E. Schwab
10) The Space Between Worlds by Micaiah Johnson
11) Bone Shard Daughter by Andrea Stewart
12) Vanished Birds by Simon Jimenez
13) Mexican Gothic by Silvia Moreno-Garcia
14) Vagabonds by Hao Jingfang
15) The Hollow Places by T. Kingfisher
16) Hench by Natalie Zina Walschots

NOVELLAS:
1) Come Tumbling Down by Seanan McGuire
2) Ring Shout by P. Dj?li Clark
3) The Empress of Salt and Fortune by Nghi Vo
4) Riot Baby by Tochi Onyebuchi
5) The Order of the Pure Moon Reflected in Water by Zen Cho
6) Seven of Infinities by Aliette de Bodard

7) Upright Women Wanted by Sarah Gailey
8) Of Dragons, Feasts and Murders by Aliette de Bodard
9) Drowned Country by Emily Tesh
10) FINNA by Nino Cipri
11) Flyaway by Kathleen Jennings
12) Prosper's Demon by K.J. Parker
13) The Physicians of Vilnoc by Lois McMaster Bujold
14) Burning Roses by S.L. Huang
15) The Four Profound Weaves by R.B. Lemberg
16) Everyone on the Moon is Essential Personnel by Julian K. Jarboe

Edited by pgcarron 2021-02-03 7:59 PM
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Administrator
Posted 2021-02-08 10:37 AM (#22901 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: RE: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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This is very cool! I take it you run your analysis after each of the big awards is announced to continually refine your predictions. How accurate to real world results have you been?
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-02-09 3:58 PM (#22904 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Posts: 27
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Yes, the Nebulas will be the last big data point to update before the finalists are announced. Since 2017, when the voting rules changed and the number of finalists increased to six, the formula has predicted 20 of the 24 novel finalists correctly. This is my first year predicting novellas, so we'll see how it goes lol.
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-03-16 12:27 AM (#22970 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Here's the final updated list

NOVELS:
1) Network Effect by Martha Wells
2) The City We Became by N.K. Jemisin
3) Black Sun by Rebecca Roanhorse
4) Piranesi by Susanna Clarke
5) Mexican Gothic by Silvia Moreno-Garcia
6) The Space Between Worlds by Micaiah Johnson

7) Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal
8) Harrow the Ninth by Tamsyn Muir
9) Once and Future Witches by Alix E. Harrow
10) Last Emperox by John Scalzi
11) The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue by V.E. Schwab
12) Bone Shard Daughter by Andrea Stewart
13) The Hollow Places by T. Kingfisher
14) Hench by Natalie Zina Walschots
15) Vanished Birds by Simon Jimenez
16) Midnight Bargain, The by C.L. Polk

NOVELLAS:
1) Ring Shout by P. Dj?li Clark
2) Riot Baby by Tochi Onyebuchi
3) Come Tumbling Down by Seanan McGuire
4) FINNA by Nino Cipri
5) The Empress of Salt and Fortune by Nghi Vo
6) The Order of the Pure Moon Reflected in Water by Zen Cho

7) Upright Women Wanted by Sarah Gailey
8) Seven of Infinities by Aliette de Bodard
9) The Four Profound Weaves by R.B. Lemberg
10) Ife-Iyoku, the Tale of Imadeyunuagbon by Oghenechovwe D Ekpeki
11) Drowned Country by Emily Tesh
12) Prosper's Demon by K.J. Parker
13) Flyaway by Kathleen Jennings
14) The Physicians of Vilnoc by Lois McMaster Bujold
15) Burning Roses by S.L. Huang
16) Of Dragons, Feasts and Murders by Aliette de Bodard

Edited by pgcarron 2021-03-16 12:31 AM
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illegible_scribble
Posted 2021-03-16 1:59 AM (#22971 - in reply to #22970)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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I'd really like to see the Hugo finalists differ significantly from the Nebula finalists. Most of the Nebula novels and novellas are horror, many of them Lovecraftian. And I understand why horror resonates with a lot of authors and readers -- especially right now -- but I am so, so tired of horror. And so tired of stories about witches, and zombies, and superheroes.

i'd really like to see authors and award nominators go for a little more originality.

 



Edited by illegible_scribble 2021-03-16 2:01 AM
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-03-18 10:58 PM (#22976 - in reply to #22971)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Posts: 27
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I updated some values and added a couple last data points including the Nebula finalists, so here is the final prediction list before nominations close tomorrow:

Novels:
1) Network Effect by Martha Wells
2) The City We Became by N.K. Jemisin
3) Black Sun by Rebecca Roanhorse
4) Piranesi by Susanna Clarke
5) The Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal
6) Harrow the Ninth by Tamsyn Muir
7) The Last Emperox by John Scalzi
8) The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue by V.E. Schwab
9) Mexican Gothic by Silvia Moreno-Garcia
10) The Space Between Worlds by Micaiah Johnson
11) The Hollow Places by T. Kingfisher
12) Once and Future Witches by Alix E. Harrow
13) Hench by Natalie Zina Walschots
14) Vanished Birds by Simon Jimenez
15) The Midnight Bargain by C.L. Polk
16) A Deadly Education by Naomi Novik

Novellas:
1) Ring Shout by P. Dj?li Clark
2) Riot Baby by Tochi Onyebuchi
3) Come Tumbling Down by Seanan McGuire
4) Empress of Salt and Fortune by Nghi Vo
5) Upright Women Wanted by Sarah Gailey
6) FINNA by Nino Cipri
7) Four Profound Weaves by R.B. Lemberg
8) Drowned Country by Emily Tesh
9) Order of the Pure Moon Reflected in Water by Zen Cho
10) Flyaway by Kathleen Jennings
11) Seven of Infinities by Aliette de Bodard
12) Ife-Iyoku, the Tale of Imadeyunuagbon by Oghenechovwe Donald Ekpeki
13) Burning Roses by S.L. Huang
14) Prosper's Demon by K.J. Parker
15) Physicians of Vilnoc by Lois McMaster Bujold
16) When the Tiger Came Down the Mountain by Nghi Vo
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-04-13 11:21 AM (#23030 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Posts: 27
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12/12 in my predictions this year!

http://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-history/2021-hugo-awards/
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kship pilot
Posted 2021-04-14 12:50 PM (#23034 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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That?s very impressive, well done! How accurate is your method at predicting the eventual winner?
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-04-15 11:37 AM (#23035 - in reply to #23034)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Posts: 27
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It's not designed to predict the winner specifically, just the finalists, but for the last four years the novel in the #1 spot has been the winner, so I would put my money on Network Effect.
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kship pilot
Posted 2021-04-17 5:49 AM (#23036 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Thanks for the reply. I haven?t read all the nominated books but of those I have read Network Effect is the one I would choose.
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-05-16 11:50 PM (#23116 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Posts: 27
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Here's my blog post for predictions throughout the next year. Obviously too early to be very accurate until the end of the year, mostly just as a discussion board at this point:

https://mrphilipslibrary.wordpress.com/2021/05/16/hugo-predictions-2...
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MackayJan
Posted 2021-07-08 4:55 AM (#23263 - in reply to #22897)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Hi, I just joined you and I want to say hello. Very nice to be here!!! I want to say thank you for such a list you made based on your findings. Half of the novellas I have read and I want to say thank you for your hard work!!!
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pgcarron
Posted 2021-07-13 1:28 AM (#23270 - in reply to #23263)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2021 Prediction List



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Posts: 27
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Thanks for the kind words. I'm glad you've enjoyed it.
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